Reviews that say that one thing hasn’t occurred are at all times attention-grabbing to me, as a result of as we all know, there are “identified knowns”; there are issues we all know we all know. We additionally know there are “identified unknowns”; that’s to say we all know there are some issues we have no idea. However there are additionally “unknown unknowns” — those we don’t know we don’t know.
— Donald Rumsfeld, U.S. Secretary of Protection,
Protection Division Briefing on February 12, 2002
I’ve drawn a diagram of this constellation under. I like drawing diagrams as a result of they usually level out issues we miss. Issues we miss may cause all kinds of hassle. On this case what was lacking from Rumsfeld’s assertion (and considering?) have been “unknown knowns”. These are that which we don’t know however which we might know, as a result of different folks know them. “Unknown knowns” are additionally referred to as ignorance and are sometimes a consequence of certitude or religion.
Your complete quad seems to be like this
The vertical axis offers together with your data (or your group’s data) vs different folks’s data. This axis needs to be simple to get a deal with on besides in these instances when somebody thinks he is aware of kind of than he really does which may trigger some confusion as to the place the true zero lies. On the prime, we now have the issues that . On the backside, we now have the issues that you simply have no idea however different folks (may) know. The horizontal offers with the world or actuality. Some issues are identified about actuality reminiscent of the present climate, the previous historical past of inventory costs, the legislation of gravity, and many others. Some issues about actuality are unknown reminiscent of future rates of interest, future authorities insurance policies, future expertise, and many others.Everyone has a private diagram. As an illustration, your data could also be my ignorance; what can be a shock to me could also be a prediction to you attributable to your higher grasp of both private data or data about actuality. The higher your private data is, the much less ignorant you may be however extra importantly, the extra predictions it is possible for you to to make and the less surprises you’ll expertise.
One significantly profound supply of private ignorance and surprises is specialization. Specialization drives an individual into the higher proper nook the place he is aware of all the things there may be to find out about nothing. Folks could also be shocked to be taught this however regardless of usually being requested their opinion on present occasions actors typically don’t know a lot about politics whereasthey do know rather a lot about appearing 
. The identical goes for different vocations. A extra severe instance could be that of the scholar. Students or researchers are vocationally rewarded for his or her productiveness as measured by the variety of publications in prestigious journals. Whereas there may be a lot of concentrate on work-life stability and entertaining different hobbies, those that focus 100% of their power on their specialization ultimately will get the promotion. This has result in plenty of ultra-focused intellectuals every driving a specialised understanding of a slender fraction of the world however few tying all of it collectively.The result’s specialists which have a tough time speaking to the broader public and even to one another. There are not any singly organizing people which might be able to studying all the things there may be to know anymore. As an illustration, there was philosophers. Philosophers would take into consideration the world. Philosophers then break up into pure philosophers and “different”. The pure philosophers later grew to become mathematicians, physicists, chemists, astronomers, geologists, biologists, … and never so lengthy after that these break up up as effectively. Thus at this time it is rather arduous to position data into context.
Subsequently placing issues in context is just not finished by people. Somewhat it’s finished by procedures or delegation by a system. Now the issue is that specialization has brought about an perspective the place it’s implicitly assumed that there’s at all times a “they” that may clear up any downside. World warming? “They” will consider one thing! Flu epidemics? “They” will consider one thing! Working out of oil? “They” will consider one thing!
The issue is that there is no such thing as a “they” in command of the world. “They” might be able to repair remoted issues like a gasoline chromatographic evaluation of ear wax, however “they” are usually not capable of repair systemic downside. Methods have inertia. Numerous inertia. Did you ever marvel why English as taught in colleges focuses the analyses of texts usually perpetrated by loopy folks, , writers, slightly grammar or writing copy or journalistic articles or just letters? College students are primarily imitating English professors, who’re imitating medieval monasteries, who’re imitating historical Greek philosophers (learn extra right here). Structure is one other instance. Why do large establishments have Doric columns imitating stone facades of Greek temples which once more imitate wooden pillars of less complicated huts? Why do universities nonetheless have seminars relationship from a time when communication was so gradual and costly that college students couldn’t afford their very own textbooks? It’s systemic inertia and the rationale for the systemic inertia is that there is no such thing as a “they” in command of operations.
This turns into a giant downside with regards to future planning. As an illustration, monetary planning is usually based mostly on historic returns regardless that everybody warns us that previous outcomes are not any assure of future returns. The query we should ask ourself is just not what the identified unknowns are e.g. whether or not future returns of the inventory market indices are 4%, 8% or 12%, however slightly what are the unknown unknowns? Will democracy nonetheless exist in 30 years? Will the greenback be value something? Will barter slightly than financial alternate be the main target? Will everyone be entrepreneurs slightly than staff? Will world warfare III happen? Will folks be anticipated to develop their very own meals or will meals be supplied within the type of soylent inexperienced by pipeline? Few retirement plans within the type of 401(okay)s, IRAs, SEPs, and many others. make provisions for this, as a result of monetary planners are, sadly, specialists in monetary planning.
There are two methods to pursue right here. The snug one is to comply with the group and do what everyone else does. That is secure within the psychic sense. Be aware as an illustration, that since very many individuals have been silly and speculated in everlasting development of actual property costs they did get a bailout. People don’t fare this effectively as a result of democracy cares much less about people. Nonetheless, people are nimbler and extra agile than crowds, so this makes for an alternate technique which is the one I choose. However this technique is just not all about accumulating 1,000,000 {dollars}. It’s also concerning the scenario the place cash doesn’t purchase you something.
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Initially posted 2008-03-17 07:12:24.